20120419

persistence of true grim & frostbitten small world

1. Dali / Disney short film "Destino," set to Opeth track, "I feel the dark":

 

And a couple other things, while we're feeling grim and frostbitten (and, perhaps, anticipating frost, permafrost and the other colder modes of water, to be in significant decline).

2. A compelling op-ed by (former?) Republican meteorologist Paul Douglas describing his "climate change epiphany."

These are the Dog Days of March. . . The scope, intensity and duration of this early heat wave are historic and unprecedented. And yes, climate change is probably a contributing factor. "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." 129,404 weather records in one year, nationwide? You can't point to any one weather extreme and say "that's climate change". But a warmer, wetter atmosphere loads the dice, increasing the potential for historic spikes in temperature and more frequent and bizarre weather extremes. You can't prove that any one of Barry Bond's 762 home runs was sparked by (alleged) steroid use. But it did increase his "base state", raising the overall odds of hitting a home run. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, more fuel for floods, while increased evaporation pushes other regions into drought.
3. From UCSD's "Do The Math": Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist, portrays a dialogue on economic growth (and energy), perhaps revealing several economic articles of faith withering under well-elucidated laws of physics, as recounted by the prevailing physicist.

So I can twist my head into thinking of quality of life development in an otherwise steady-state as being a form of indefinite growth. But it’s not your father’s growth. It’s not growing GDP, growing energy use, interest on bank accounts, loans, fractional reserve money, investment. It’s a whole different ballgame, folks. Of that, I am convinced. Big changes await us. An unrecognizable economy. The main lesson for me is that growth is not a “good quantum number,” as physicists will say: it’s not an invariant of our world. Cling to it at your own peril.
4. Finally, hone your discourse and disputation with this handy guide to logical fallacies.